- January 10, 2025
- by Paul Adeagbo
- CEOs Desk, Effective Communication, Executive and Organizational Leadership, Global Leadership, Leadership Corner
- 889 Views
Great leaders are often celebrated for their tenacity, which is the ability to weather storms and stay the course in the face of adversity. However, the line between perseverance and stubbornness is perilously thin. What happens when that unwavering commitment blinds leaders to the harsh truth that a strategy is no longer working? This is where the Dead Horse Theory becomes an invaluable lens for leadership reflection.
“When the horse you are riding dies, the best course of action is to dismount and find another horse.”
The Dead Horse Theory suggests that when the horse you are riding dies, the best course of action is to dismount and find another horse. Yet, in leadership and business, many leaders cling to their proverbial dead horses. They take actions such as:
- Buying a new saddle for the horse.
- Improving the horse’s diet, despite it being dead.
- Changing the rider instead of addressing the real problem.
- Firing the horse caretaker and hiring someone new, hoping for a different outcome.
- Holding countless meetings to discuss ways to increase the dead horse’s speed.
- Creating committees to analyze the dead horse problem from every angle. These groups work for months, compile reports, and ultimately conclude the obvious: the horse is dead.
- Justifying efforts by comparing the horse to other similarly dead horses, only to blame the new set of riders in town.
Spotting a failing strategy before it inflicts irreparable damage is one of the most critical skills a leader can develop. Yet, many leaders struggle to make the call. Why is it so hard to let go?
Abandoning a strategy is not just a business decision, sometimes it is an emotional one. Leaders invest their time, reputation, and personal conviction into making strategies succeed. Walking away can feel like admitting failure, a bitter pill for anyone in a position of authority. The psychological weight of this decision can be paralyzing.
Several psychological traps further complicate this decision:
- Sunk Cost Fallacy: The belief that past investments in terms of time, money, or effort justify continued commitment, even when the outcome is unlikely to improve. The deeper the investment, the harder it is to walk away.
- Fear of Failure: The worry that abandoning a strategy might signal weakness or incompetence to peers, subordinates, or stakeholders. This fear is particularly potent in high-stakes environments.
- Ego and Pride: The desire to prove oneself right, even at the expense of the company. Leaders who equate their self-worth with the success of their ideas are especially vulnerable.
- Confirmation Bias: Seeking out information that supports the strategy’s viability while ignoring evidence to the contrary.
- Cultural Stigma: In many organizations, changing course is viewed as an admission of defeat rather than a demonstration of agility.
These internal conflicts create a dangerous inertia that prevents leaders from making the tough but necessary decision to pivot. The longer they hold on, the harder it becomes to dismount. Letting go of a failing strategy requires both clarity and courage. Here’s how leaders can identify when it’s time to dismount:
- Look for Persistent Negative Indicators
Every strategy will encounter bumps along the road, but certain signs point to deeper, systemic issues:
- Consistent underperformance against key performance indicators (KPIs) without a clear path to recovery
- Repeated missed deadlines despite course corrections
- Waning team morale or disengagement from key stakeholders
- Customer dissatisfaction, declining market share, or increasing customer churn
- Escalating costs with diminishing returns
If these issues persist despite multiple interventions, the horse is likely dead.
- Differentiate Temporary Setbacks from Long-Term Failure
Not every setback signal failure — some are simply the cost of progress. The key is assessing whether the underlying fundamentals still hold:
- Is the market opportunity still viable?
- Are competitors thriving under similar conditions?
- Is there a realistic path to turning things around?
- Are external conditions (such as technology shifts or regulatory changes) making the strategy obsolete?
If the answers are consistently negative, it’s time to reconsider the strategy.
- Use Data as Your North Star
Data removes emotion from the equation. Leaders should regularly review performance metrics and set clear benchmarks for success. If the numbers consistently fail to align with projections, the writing is on the wall.
Additionally, tools like customer feedback surveys, financial reports, and industry trend analyses can provide objective insights that challenge or validate assumptions.
- Seek External Perspectives
It’s easy to become insulated within an organization’s echo chamber. Consulting with mentors, external advisors, or even frontline employees can offer fresh perspectives on whether a strategy still holds promise or needs to be abandoned.
Cross-functional reviews can also provide valuable insights. Someone outside the immediate project team may spot flaws or opportunities that those closest to the work have overlooked.
- Build a Culture Where Letting Go Is a Strength
Organizations that view strategic pivots as a sign of agility rather than failure create an environment where leaders feel empowered to make tough decisions. Normalize the idea that abandoning what no longer works is a hallmark of great leadership, not a sign of weakness.
Netflix pivoted from DVD rentals to streaming services, despite initial resistance and the risk of alienating their existing customer base. Today, it is a global leader in digital entertainment. IBM transitioned from hardware manufacturing to software, cloud computing, and AI, redefining itself for the digital age. Slack was a gaming company before pivoting to become one of the most popular workplace communication tools.
Kodak’s story serves as a powerful reminder of the cost of clinging to dead horses. Despite inventing the digital camera in 1975, the company doubled down on its film business for decades. By the time it finally embraced digital, it was too late — the market had moved on.
How to Let Go Without Destabilizing the Organization
Letting go doesn’t mean abandoning everything. Leaders can manage the transition by:
- Communicating the rationale behind the decision openly and honestly
- Engaging stakeholders in co-creating the next steps
- Investing in upskilling teams to adapt to the new direction
- Establishing clear timelines and milestones for the pivot
- Celebrating small wins to maintain morale during the transition
Successful pivots often involve a combination of preservation and reinvention i.e., salvaging what works while discarding what doesn’t.
Knowing when to persist and when to pivot is a defining trait. So, the next time you find yourself riding a dead horse, remember: the sooner you dismount, the faster you can find a better way forward.
Paul Adeagbo is a Research Executive at the GOTNI Leadership Centre, where he leverages his expertise in research to provide historical context and data-driven insights to support informed decision-making and knowledge sharing. His work is instrumental in shaping the strategic direction of the Centre by delivering valuable information that empowers leaders to make better decisions
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